Insights

2026 Global M&A Trends and Outlook

TL;DR

We asked 700 dealmakers worldwide, “How do you see M&A playing out this year?” The answer was cautious optimism. The keywords defining the 2026 M&A market are “carve-outs,” “AI,” and “selective growth.” Deal volume will rise but without overheating, with PE leaning in while corporates stay measured.

Confidence is back — but tempered

This report is based on a survey of 700 M&A decision-makers across 20 countries (519 corporates, 181 PE). Their answers can be condensed into a single line: “We're willing — but not reckless.”

While 2026 deal count is expected to rise, this cycle is defined by selectivity rather than froth. Most dealmakers expect 3–10 deals per year, concentrated below the USD 1 billion mark.

Why so cautious? Regulatory volatility, shifts in trade regimes, global conflicts, and tax-framework transitions are layering uncertainty onto decision-making. In this environment, corporates are moving aggressively not only to acquire but also to rationalize existing portfolios.

The keyword of the year: carve-outs

If we had to define the 2026 M&A market in a single word, it would be “carve-out.” Companies are decisively separating and divesting non-core businesses to slim down strategically amid geopolitical pressure and AI-driven industry restructuring.

New market and geographic expansion (58%), core-business growth (57%), and securing technology capabilities and talent (46%) are cited as the top drivers of M&A, with more than half of both PE and corporate dealmakers expecting carve-out activity to rise over the next 1–2 years.

57% of corporate dealmakers and 71% of PE funds are reviewing or already executing portfolio rationalization, and PE is emerging as the natural acquirer of corporate carve-out assets. Corporate sell-side demand and PE buy-side demand are aligning cleanly.

Why does this matter in Korea? As large conglomerates accelerate affiliate spin-offs and non-core divestitures, interest naturally rises in independent firms within those supply chains as well as in mid-sized and small owner-managed companies in similar businesses.

PE is upbeat, corporates more cautious — the temperature gap

There's a notable finding in this survey: a clear temperature gap between PE and corporate dealmakers.

75% of US PE dealmakers expect 2026 deal count to rise, versus 57% of corporates. 89% of PE expect deal quality to improve, while only 44% of non-US dealmakers share that view.

Why is PE so active? Quite simply, accumulated dry powder cannot stay uninvested indefinitely, and the timing pressure to return capital to LPs is intensifying. That said, they aren't deploying recklessly: 43% of PE dealmakers chose “maintaining pricing discipline” as their dry powder deployment strategy — optimistic but calculated.

AI is reshaping how M&A itself gets done

Another major change in the 2026 M&A market is AI permeating the entire deal process.

AI is doing more than speeding things up — it is making possible deep contract review, integration risk monitoring, competitive benchmarking, and deal-history pattern recognition that previously weren't economically viable. The quality and speed of due diligence are rising in parallel. 43% of dealmakers named technology as their top target sector for 2026, and AI is already extending its influence from asset valuation through to integration planning.

Execution risk behind every opportunity

It isn't all rosy. As confidence rises, execution complexity rises with it. 52% of corporate dealmakers cited “operational disentanglement” as the biggest barrier to carve-outs, followed by valuation complexity (43%) and IT/data separation (40%). This underscores how important advisors who can properly structure deals and back execution have become.

KPMG Insight

2026 global M&A will expand cautiously but unmistakably along two axes — a carve-out boom and the maturation of AI in deal-making. Companies with clearly demonstrable strategic value will receive competitive interest from both PE and strategic investors at once, creating a market favorable to sellers.