Insights

With the 2026 global vehicle sales forecast reduced to 89.23 million units, the market is set to record approximately 910,000 fewer sales than a year earlier. Samjong KPMG's Automotive Market Navigator for the third quarter of 2026, published quarterly using GlobalData forecasts, examines the market across four dimensions: global sales, regional markets, environmentally friendly vehicles, and automaker performance. Global vehicle sales are forecast at 89,232,210 units in 2026, while environmentally friendly vehicle sales are expected to reach 38,813,337 units, approximately 7% higher year on year.

Sales concentrate in Asia Pacific and North America, while growth comes from South America. In the third quarter of 2026, the two largest regions—Asia Pacific with approximately 10.18 million units, or 46.3%, and North America with approximately 4.99 million units, or 22.2%—are expected to account for 68.5% of global sales. However, Asia-Pacific sales are forecast to fall by 870,000 units from the previous quarter, while China's outlook has been revised down by 740,000 units to 6.13 million, suggesting that volume growth is reaching its limits. South America, by contrast, is expected to grow 7.6%, with Brazil posting the highest year-on-year regional growth at 13.3%. The United States and China are forecast to contract by 3.8% and 9.1%, respectively.

9.73 million environmentally friendly vehicles — the U.S.–China share has passed its peak. Global sales of environmentally friendly vehicles are forecast at 9,725,661 units in the third quarter, with the United States and China together accounting for 52.6%. That combined share is expected to fall to around 46% as Chinese EV sales decline in 2027. Among automakers, third-quarter sales at most major groups, including the top three, are expected to be weaker year on year; Stellantis is the only one forecast to grow, by 2.7%, while Hyundai Motor Group is projected to decline 4.4%. In environmentally friendly vehicles, Volkswagen Group (+35.2%) and Stellantis (+33.4%) are expected to post strong growth, while Tesla declines 7.7%. Volkswagen's hybrid sales in China, in particular, are growing at nearly 400%.

Implications for M&A. First, in a market where volume growth has stalled, efforts by automakers and suppliers to defend earnings will drive cost-structure restructuring, potentially increasing consolidation and restructuring transactions across the components value chain. Second, the shift in the powertrain mix from an all-in focus on EVs toward stronger hybrids may catalyze strategic revaluation and bolt-on acquisitions of hybrid powertrain and component companies. Third, the declining U.S.–China share of environmentally friendly vehicles and the rise of emerging markets such as South America are likely to stimulate regional portfolio restructuring and cross-border deal demand among automakers and suppliers.