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Insights
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Q2 Autos Under a Triple Squeeze of Tariffs, Electrification, and China — Winners and Losers in Numbers
With tariff variables and electrification proceeding in parallel, the contours of the Q2 2026 global auto market are emerging. According to Samjong KPMG Economic Research Institute's Samjong Focus Automotive Market Navigator, the 2026 global auto sales forecast stands at 92,883,766 units — down ~860,000 from the Q1 forecast. By region in Q2, China (6,577,748 units) and the US (4,215,864 units) increase by 1.44 million and 560,000 units versus the prior quarter respectively, while Japan is expected to decline by about 340,000 units.
Eco-friendly vehicles led by US-China duopoly. In Q2 2026, the US and China account for 66.1% of global eco-friendly vehicle sales, dominating the market. China's volatile forecast volumes are expected to widen the share gap between Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. Top-10 OEM Q2 eco-friendly growth rates: Toyota (#1, 1,291,031 units, +12.7%), BYD (#2, 1,167,559 units, +10.7%), Volkswagen (#3, 711,437 units, +33.4%), Hyundai Motor Group (#6, 552,893 units, +26.4%).
Hyundai vs. Volkswagen. Over the past four quarters, the gap between Hyundai Motor Group and Volkswagen in EV/HEV sales has widened, with Volkswagen forecast to outsell Hyundai by ~160,000 eco-friendly units in Q2 2026. Korea's Q2 sales forecast is 426,951 units.
What this means for M&A. Shifts in the global OEM landscape suggest three directions for auto-industry M&A. First, accelerating global supply-chain entry by Chinese OEMs and suppliers — led by BYD — is simultaneously elevating cross-border M&A risk and opportunity for European and Korean Tier-1 and Tier-2 suppliers as potential targets. Second, demand will continue for OEMs to strategically acquire EV component capabilities (motors, inverters, BMS) in response to surging hybrid demand. Third, with tariff uncertainty making local production footprints essential, demand will rise for stake acquisitions in local OEMs or CMs (contract manufacturers) with production bases in the US, Europe, and India.
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Full report: Samjong KPMG Economic Research Institute, Samjong Focus (April 2026)