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HBM Investment Tops the Agenda, Supply Chain Diversification Above 50% — Shared Priorities Across the 2026 Global Semiconductor Industry
Investment direction and risk perception across the semiconductor industry are reshaping rapidly around AI and geopolitics.
Samjong KPMG Economic Research Institute's 2026 KPMG Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook analyzes the 2026 outlook and strategic priorities based on a survey of global semiconductor industry leaders. 73% of respondents intend to increase capital expenditure on AI year-on-year — 6 percentage points higher than the prior year's survey — underscoring that AI is becoming a core driver of profit generation.
Memory and processors at the heart of 2026 growth. 67% of respondents named memory (HBM, NAND flash, DRAM) as the area with the highest expected growth in 2026 — a sharp 18-percentage-point jump from the prior year. Microprocessors (GPUs, MCUs, MPUs) were cited by 66% as a growth area. As AI workloads expand explosively, scaling HBM production capacity and securing long-term contracts via joint investments with hyperscalers such as Amazon, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure are emerging as core strategies.
Supply-chain diversification and generative AI top the 2026 agenda. 54% of respondents said they will focus on regional diversity to ensure stable supply-chain management in 2026, while 36% plan to adopt generative AI to upgrade supply-chain management. The industry's Next Steps include expanding the supply chain's regional diversity by at least 50% within three years.
Regionalism and IP regulation emerge as the top risks. 50% of respondents named regionalism, tariffs, and import/export restrictions related to semiconductor technology and intellectual property as the industry's biggest issue over the next three years — up 10 percentage points from 40% the prior year. Talent shortages and competition for skilled workers (41%) and supply-chain disruption (37%) followed. 34% also expressed concern about power supply for production facilities by 2028, signaling that energy infrastructure has become a new challenge.
What this means for M&A. The 2026 investment direction implies three M&A trends. First, demand will rise for acquisitions of memory-specialist or packaging-technology firms to internalize high-performance memory capabilities such as HBM. Second, cross-border deals around materials, equipment, and foundry assets in the US, Europe, and Japan are likely to accelerate to meet the 50%+ regional diversification target. Third, strategic bolt-on acquisitions of tech firms specializing in AI-driven supply-chain management (demand forecasting, inventory optimization) are a trend to watch.