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A Triple Shock to Resources, Logistics, and AI — Challenges the US-Iran War Poses to Korean Industry
Middle East geopolitical risk has emerged as a structural variable for Korean industry. According to Samjong KPMG Economic Research Institute's Business Focus, on February 28, 2026, a joint US-Israel strike on Iran triggered direct military conflict, raising the likelihood of Iran retaliating by closing the Strait of Hormuz. The report analyzes the impact on Korean companies along three axes: resources, logistics, and AI.
Resource and financial shock. Immediately after the strike, naphtha prices spiked, raising input-cost pressure on Korea's petrochemical industry. Korea sources a significant portion of its naphtha imports from the Middle East, including Iran, so supply disruption swings profitability sharply. Amid global stagflation concerns, the possibility of a Bank of Korea base-rate hike is being raised in the market, while the BOK has signaled KRW 3 trillion of government-bond purchases to stabilize the bond market.
Cascading impact on logistics and semiconductors. With logistics disruption threats at the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, global logistics costs are surging, and shifts to alternative routes (Cape of Good Hope) extend transit time and cost. In semiconductors, AI investment supports a supplier-dominant market structure in the near term, but a medium-to-long-term response strategy is needed for shifts in Middle East data-center demand and rising military semiconductor demand.
What this means for M&A. This conflict catalyzes Korean companies' supply-chain redesign and reshapes the M&A landscape. First, cross-border M&A aimed at raw-material diversification will accelerate to reduce dependence on Middle East-sourced naphtha and energy. Second, demand will rise for shipping and port infrastructure investment and logistics-company acquisitions to secure alternative routes to Hormuz and Suez. Third, as geopolitical risk lingers, valuations of defense, AI infrastructure, and energy security companies are rising — expanding bolt-on deal opportunities for proactive portfolio inclusion.
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Full report: Samjong KPMG Economic Research Institute, Business Focus (March 2026)
Contact: Samjong KPMG M&A Center