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A 92% CAGR Market with No Winner Yet — Dissecting the Six Competitive Models in Robotaxi
Autonomous-driving technology is at last transitioning into a revenue model for the mobility industry. Samjong KPMG Economic Research Institute's Issue Monitor (February 2026) analyzes how, with robotaxi entering commercialization, inter-company competition is intensifying. According to MarketsandMarkets, the global robotaxi market's 2023–2030 CAGR is estimated at ~92% (base case), ~108% (bullish), and ~72% even in the bear case.
Six business models split the competition. The report identifies six business models adopted by robotaxi companies based on combinations of internalized scope, partnership intensity, and solution development orientation: ① fully vertical integration (Tesla, Zoox) — building everything from chips to vehicles in-house; ② horizontal platform expansion (Apollo Go, Pony) — starting from data-driven platforms and broadening reach; ③ solution fleet operations (Waymo, MAY mobility) — applying validated tech across fleets; ④ next-generation ride-hailing (Uber, Lyft) — soft-landing autonomy through technology partnerships; ⑤ manufacturing-anchored tech integration (Hyundai Motional, MOIA) — layering autonomy onto OEM capabilities; ⑥ system orchestration (NVIDIA) — infrastructure plays supporting the entire ecosystem.
From innovation to everyday use — four hurdles. For robotaxis to become daily transport, four barriers must be cleared: building a flywheel on long-tail driving data; achieving HW scale to improve cost structure; differentiating strategies by regional regulatory environments; and forming consumer touchpoints and service trust faster than competitors. The company that balances these four most effectively is expected to take market leadership.
What this means for M&A. The rapid growth of robotaxi opens diverse deal opportunities. First, OEM and platform players will continue acquiring tech startups to secure autonomous software and AI capabilities. Second, capital tie-ups and alliances between ride-hailing platforms such as Uber and Lyft and autonomous-tech firms are likely to expand. Third, for Korean OEMs like Hyundai and Kia, cross-border deal sourcing opportunities in robotaxi and autonomous-driving capability M&A will remain abundant.
- 📄 Source → Samjong KPMG Economic Research Institute, Issue Monitor (February 2026)